Black Friday

 “The term “Black Friday” originated in Philadelphia in reference to the heavy traffic on that day (see Origin of the name “Black Friday” below). More recently, merchants and the media have used it instead to refer to the beginning of the period in which retailers go from being in the red (i.e., posting a loss on the books) to being in the black (i.e., turning a profit).”

What else can Black Friday teach us outside of retail dynamics and health of the general marketplace? Can the deals that can be had on specific goods show us a trend in the marketplace?

Deals That Point to Irrelevance

One of the deals pointed out as a screaming deal were the $59.99 GPS unit from TomTom that Walmart had advertised. While these were quite a hot seller, and terrific deal for customers what did this deal really signify about the long term attractiveness of this category?

Seeing a TomTom GPS at such a low cost was a surprise this is a move I’d have expected from an also ran competitor not one of the two market leaders. This move follows news of Google’s map and turn by turn being added to the Android mobile phone platform, as well as aggressive movement from Apple into this field via the iPhone.

We’re likely seeing the slow extinction of the handheld GPS due to convergence with other products specifically phones.

Deals That Point to Maturity

LCD televisions so cheap they make and Xbox360 seem expensive? Yes, we saw those on Black Friday $248 for a 32in LCD or $450 for a 40in display. These all point towards the movement into the mainstream that is the flat panel monitor. I can remember two years ago when $1000 for a 42in DLP TV was a screaming deal. Now the future of DLP seems grim since its most attractive competitive advantage was price.

In addition we’ve also seen a $78 Blu Ray player. This along with the price point for the tvs is showing that high definition has arrived for your average consumer. 

We’re likely going to see the complete transition away from CRTs and DLP tvs, alongside Blu Ray grabbing a increasingly larger share of the DVD business.

Deals That Point to Future Categories

While we could more accurately point to last Black Friday as the rise of the Netbook this holiday season we’re seeing increasing inroads in this category. With the Netbook hitting $200 a price point I’d expect from a higher end appliance not a low end computer, this category is really starting to drive share in the PC space. 

The question OEMs increasingly have to ask themselves though is how do I trade a $600-1000 purchase for a $200 one and still make money? Is this something that can be accomplished by scale? Maybe sell it as “your second pc”? Or do you partner with service providers as some are doing to provide a “connected anywhere” experience that can be monetized.

It will be interesting to see, but I see Netbooks as a driver for lower cost wireless data services, and increasingly will change how we think about mobile computing.

Conclusion

We’ll see how these predictions end up but it’s almost as fun to look at what these sales could mean as it is to see what great deals exist. It is important to note the examples and what they can mean to positioning for your product in the retail space and holiday shopping.