Posts have been few and far between since mid November I know. I’ve been busy getting ready for the holidays, looking for new positions, and most importantly just taking some time for me. During one of these excursions I came across the following sign:

My first immediate thought was how hilarious is it to have a venue advertising Manheim Steamroller and Slayer/Megadeath on the same billboard. My second is why I am going to WAMU theatre when they went the way of the dinosaurs.

We’ve seen lately the huge risk that businesses take when there is any kind of endorsement or sponsorship. I’m curious then why there isn’t an appropriate level of consideration and negotiation in determining mutual escape clauses from these sponsorships.

In thinking on this and Tiger Woods recent experiences I would think that it would be both sides who would wish to end these endorsements. When the media juggernaut is getting a hold of a story there’s nothing worse than opening a fresh wound back up by running a campaign utilizing the person who is in question.

At the time (mid 2000’s) it sounds like a plot from one of those classic animated Christmas movies I remember seeing on TV growing up. In a world often obsessed with focusing more on our differences and diversity where we have appointed times to celebrate sub segments of our population such as (Women’s History Month, or Black History Month), how could anyone then start a war on Christmas? Yet here we stood on the brink of a really good plot for a classic film:

Little Johnnie walks into a Walmart and asks “Where’s Santa”, his dad perplexed has to explain the difference between holidays and Christmas. Little Susie walks into a Sears and sees people bitterly arguing over the fact they wished somebody a “Happy Holidays”. Would they have to cancel Christmas? Would little Johnnie and Susie have to watch as everyone around them spiraled down into an angry debate between political correctness and religious indignation?

Those days have certainly cooled down now, from the high points in the tension in 2005-2007. There was one shining light in the business world who somehow managed to stay above the bickering with their own tradition: Starbucks.

Red Cup Days
Starbucks began this tradition in 1997, by converting from their traditional iconic white cups to red ones for the holidays.  When this PR disaster hit companies Starbucks simply relied on their traditional cups and marketed “Red Cup Days” removing any hint on which way they leaned in the Christmas vs. Holidays war.  At a time when bitterness was fast overtaking a holiday season that is supposed to be bringing people joy, Starbucks offered a reprieve.

Red Cup Days Now
I walked into Starbucks yesterday and say “Christmas Blend” and “Holiday Blend”, to be honest my first thought was I may have to buy both and see which I like better. Curious I wanted to know what the difference was, imagine my surprise at my naivety as a consumer to be told by a worker at Barnes & Noble that was selling the coffee that they’re the same. A look on Starbucks website seems to back it up as all the characteristics and the descriptors are remarkably similar:

Holiday Blend
From Latin America come bright, sparkling beans. Asia/Pacific beans provide their own smooth, full-bodied taste. And Aged Sumatran coffees – carefully held for 3 to 5 years – complete the blend with its signature spicy flavor.

Christmas Blend
Our Christmas Blend is sweet and spicy, with a flavor derived from bright, sparkling Latin American coffees and smooth, full-bodied Asia/Pacific beans. But it’s the Aged Sumatran beans, carefully held for 3 to 5 years before roasting, that give it that delicious signature spicy taste.

My take
It’s funny while I praise Starbucks for sidestepping this huge issue effectively through their marketing, that I would continue to praise them as they venture into this warfront now. The difference now is the mood and sentiment, in 2005 when this war was really going strong the economy seemed to be doing well, and had a looming war between conservative idealogy and liberals. Now in 2009 the focus has shifted to major issues facing the country and the economy. It was a safe time to create a “his” and “her” type lines for the product allowing those who practice or embrace Christmas to have their time, while not excluding those with separate beliefs.

 “The term “Black Friday” originated in Philadelphia in reference to the heavy traffic on that day (see Origin of the name “Black Friday” below). More recently, merchants and the media have used it instead to refer to the beginning of the period in which retailers go from being in the red (i.e., posting a loss on the books) to being in the black (i.e., turning a profit).”

What else can Black Friday teach us outside of retail dynamics and health of the general marketplace? Can the deals that can be had on specific goods show us a trend in the marketplace?

Deals That Point to Irrelevance

One of the deals pointed out as a screaming deal were the $59.99 GPS unit from TomTom that Walmart had advertised. While these were quite a hot seller, and terrific deal for customers what did this deal really signify about the long term attractiveness of this category?

Seeing a TomTom GPS at such a low cost was a surprise this is a move I’d have expected from an also ran competitor not one of the two market leaders. This move follows news of Google’s map and turn by turn being added to the Android mobile phone platform, as well as aggressive movement from Apple into this field via the iPhone.

We’re likely seeing the slow extinction of the handheld GPS due to convergence with other products specifically phones.

Deals That Point to Maturity

LCD televisions so cheap they make and Xbox360 seem expensive? Yes, we saw those on Black Friday $248 for a 32in LCD or $450 for a 40in display. These all point towards the movement into the mainstream that is the flat panel monitor. I can remember two years ago when $1000 for a 42in DLP TV was a screaming deal. Now the future of DLP seems grim since its most attractive competitive advantage was price.

In addition we’ve also seen a $78 Blu Ray player. This along with the price point for the tvs is showing that high definition has arrived for your average consumer. 

We’re likely going to see the complete transition away from CRTs and DLP tvs, alongside Blu Ray grabbing a increasingly larger share of the DVD business.

Deals That Point to Future Categories

While we could more accurately point to last Black Friday as the rise of the Netbook this holiday season we’re seeing increasing inroads in this category. With the Netbook hitting $200 a price point I’d expect from a higher end appliance not a low end computer, this category is really starting to drive share in the PC space. 

The question OEMs increasingly have to ask themselves though is how do I trade a $600-1000 purchase for a $200 one and still make money? Is this something that can be accomplished by scale? Maybe sell it as “your second pc”? Or do you partner with service providers as some are doing to provide a “connected anywhere” experience that can be monetized.

It will be interesting to see, but I see Netbooks as a driver for lower cost wireless data services, and increasingly will change how we think about mobile computing.

Conclusion

We’ll see how these predictions end up but it’s almost as fun to look at what these sales could mean as it is to see what great deals exist. It is important to note the examples and what they can mean to positioning for your product in the retail space and holiday shopping.